Darker blues mean higher chances of a relatively cold (lowest one-third) month-not increasingly extreme cold. Blue areasīlue areas mean a much cooler than average month is more likely than a near-average or a much warmer than average month. In other words, the chances of a warmer-than-average month are the same as the chances of a near-average or a cooler-than-average month. In those areas, forecasters think that all three possible monthly temperature or precipitation categories are equally likely. About the maps White areas do not mean average NOAA map, based on data from the Climate Prediction Center. The climate is never 100 percent predictable, which means that even when one temperature outcome is favored, the others remain possible. The colors forecasters choose for the map show (1) whether one possibility is more likely than either of the other two and (2) how strong the chances of that outcome are. A full monthly temperature outlook includes the probability for all three possible monthly average temperature outcomes: well above average, near average, and well below average. There's more to a monthly climate outlook than meets the eye. If forecasters think all three possible temperature or precipitation outcomes (above-, near-, and below-average) are equally likely, or have no basis for selecting one category over the others, they issue an “equal chances” forecast. To distinguish this definition from the more literal definition, we often describe the categories as “well above (or below) average,” or sometimes “much wetter (or drier) than average”. To qualify as above or below average, the Climate Prediction Center requires the monthly temperature or precipitation to be in the upper or lower one-third of values observed from 1991-2020 for a given month. Instead, they try to predict which of three possible outcomes is most likely to occur: above-average, near-average, or below-average monthly mean temperature or total precipitation. NOAA’s monthly and seasonal outlooks do not predict specific monthly (or seasonal) temperatures or precipitation amounts. Most people understand a forecast to be a prediction of the high (or low) temperature or precipitation amount likely to occur on a given day. Outlooks are not the same as weather forecasts Those updated outlooks are the basis for the posts that appear on each month. These outlooks are updated on the last day of each month. On the third Thursday of every month, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues an outlook for temperature and precipitation for the United States for the coming month.
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